Why do diesel and petrol prices move differently in Pakistan?
Diesel fell by Rs 28.07 a litre between 18 September and 13 October 2026; petrol rose by Rs 4.58. I show why, line by line.
The Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) table for has 23 rows. 11 of them are rupee amounts that add up to the price of Rs 402.96 a litre. The rest are dollar figures, conversion rates and subtotals. The letters, units and formulas are OGRA’s. The row names are ours, in plain English.
The fuel, shipped to Pakistan
Rs 279.35
69.32%
Getting it to the pump
Rs 22.93
5.69%
Government
Rs 100.68
24.99%
| Row | Line | Amount | Unit | Formula | Group |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| row A of the archived publication | Dubai crude, Platts Arab Gulf meanLeads to H | 115.75 | US$ a barrel | Leads to H | |
| row B of the archived publication | Aramco crude premiumLeads to H | −1.50 | US$ a barrel | Leads to H | |
| row C of the archived publication | Freight and insuranceLeads to H | 8.00 | US$ a barrel | Leads to H | |
| row D of the archived publication | Refining marginLeads to H | 38.00 | US$ a barrel | Leads to H | |
| row E of the archived publication | Cost and freightLeads to H | 160.25 | US$ a barrel | E = A + B + C + D | Leads to H |
| row F of the archived publication | State Bank average exchange rateLeads to H | 276.94 | Rs per US$ | Leads to H | |
| row G of the archived publication | Conversion factorLeads to H | 158.98 | litres a barrel | Leads to H | |
| row H of the archived publication | Cost and freight, in rupeesThe fuel, shipped to Pakistan | 279.15 | Rs a litre | H = E × F ÷ G | The fuel, shipped to Pakistan |
| row I of the archived publication | IncidentalsThe fuel, shipped to Pakistan | 0.20 | Rs a litre | The fuel, shipped to Pakistan | |
| row J of the archived publication | Ocean loss or gainThe fuel, shipped to Pakistan | 0.00 | Rs a litre | The fuel, shipped to Pakistan | |
| row K of the archived publication | Cost at Karachi portSubtotal | 279.35 | Rs a litre | K = H + I + J | Subtotal |
| row L of the archived publication | Exchange rate adjustmentThe fuel, shipped to Pakistan | 0.00 | Rs a litre | The fuel, shipped to Pakistan | |
| row M of the archived publication | Customs dutyGovernment | 15.68 | Rs a litre | Government | |
| row N of the archived publication | Ex-refinery or import priceSubtotal | 295.03 | Rs a litre | N = K + L + M | Subtotal |
| row O of the archived publication | Inland freight equalisation (IFEM)Getting it to the pump | 5.08 | Rs a litre | Getting it to the pump | |
| row P of the archived publication | Oil marketing company (OMC) marginGetting it to the pump | 7.87 | Rs a litre | Getting it to the pump | |
| row Q of the archived publication | Dealer commissionGetting it to the pump | 9.98 | Rs a litre | Getting it to the pump | |
| row R of the archived publication | Price before levies and taxSubtotal | 317.96 | Rs a litre | R = N + O + P + Q | Subtotal |
| row S of the archived publication | Petroleum levyGovernment | 80.00 | Rs a litre | Government | |
| row T of the archived publication | Climate support levyGovernment | 5.00 | Rs a litre | Government | |
| row U of the archived publication | Price before sales taxSubtotal | 402.96 | Rs a litre | U = R + S + T | Subtotal |
| row V of the archived publication | Sales taxGovernment | 0.00 | Rs a litre | Government | |
| row W of the archived publication | Total price at the pumpPrice at the pump | 402.96 | Rs a litre | W = U + V | Price at the pump |
Rows F and G are not costs. They turn the dollar price into rupees a litre: the State Bank’s exchange rate, and the litres in one barrel.
Every subtotal matches the rows it adds up, to within a paisa (Rs 0.01). OGRA rounds each figure it prints, so a hand sum can differ by a paisa.
no Pakistan State Oil (PSO) notification applies to 2026-10-31 — PSO did not notify a price on this date, or notified it more than once with the notifications disagreeing — so OGRA's totals were not cross-checked and no kerosene or light diesel price was recorded
On , Rs 100.68 of a litre’s Rs 402.96 price went to the government. That is 24.99% of the price.
Take out the government’s Rs 100.68 and Rs 302.28 is left: Rs 279.35 for the fuel brought to Pakistan and Rs 22.93 for getting it to the pump.
No pump sells diesel at that price. It is the part of OGRA’s figure that is not tax or levy.
OGRA’s row N gives it as Rs 295.03 a litre on . That figure already includes customs duty of Rs 15.68.
On , the dealer got Rs 9.98 and the oil marketing company Rs 7.87. Inland freight equalisation (IFEM) added Rs 5.08, which evens out the cost of moving fuel to depots.
OGRA price notification for , document 17814.
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Diesel fell by Rs 28.07 a litre between 18 September and 13 October 2026; petrol rose by Rs 4.58. I show why, line by line.
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